Tariff Matters, For The Record?

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Political issues can by nature be such that some won’t discuss them. Topics are under-emphasized, maybe for valid reasons. However, prevailing reasoning can then be contorted, or even manipulated years later. It seems to be inevitable with the Phase 1 trade deal that the US and China just agreed upon.

Dr. Bill Conerly, who some readers may be familiar with already, has written that economists tend to be unreliable with their predictions. However, at least for once, he published a forecast with attention to politics, trade and tariffs that seems to be both prescient and cogent. Though not prepared to declare him unequivocally correct, the assertion that economic data in the 12 months preceding an election can help an incumbent’s chances seems to have been exceptionally pertinent.


The Phase 1 deal has been in the news for a month or two now. It has taken additional time to get it signed, leaving about 10.5 months until November 3rd. Additionally, it does not sound like the deal is that substantial, just a preliminary step.

However, political campaign prospects are things that could easily have been missed by most persons. Additionally, you have economists of nearly all stripes who have taught, preached or proselytized the virtues of free trade for years and decades. Journalists turn to them for quotations and sourcing in their stories. Consequently, we may have material all over the internet citing authority figures who offer different perspectives, none of which give the same potential insight about when things happen–and this is after the fact.

It may not be the case that minor progress has been made with the trade dispute on a schedule that would support re-election prospects. However, it might be. If people are not aware of these things then matters can be misinterpreted for a long time to come.

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