Pandemic or Not, We Should Make Money or Try?

Some politicians and media outlets are critical of persons and enterprises who have been able to capitalize during the pandemic. According to The Washington Post,

Tech billionaires invested comparatively little increased wealth back into the public sphere for the pandemic. (Jeff) Bezos donated $150 million, or roughly 0.26 percent of the profits he accrued during the pandemic, to covid-related causes, “while also having his workers work in Dickensian conditions,” said … a University of Michigan professor. (Elon) Musk reportedly gave $5 million, or 0.004 percent of his newfound gains, to covid-19 research, in addition to donating ventilators built to help patients with sleep apnea.


Practically, the above may first and foremost support arguments about progressivity of taxation. But a time of hardship maybe should not be different than one of prosperity with regard to opportunity?

Some businesses have acceleration, such as online vendors of used vehicles. Namely, Carvana (CVNA) and Vroom (VRM). My own account has done well with the former and shows the stock as purchased at a price in the $40 range, as compared to $265.09 currently. Some shares were acquired substantially lower, probably in the $20s as the market tumbled with the pandemic’s onset, and sold once they were in the $40s (as the company raised funds by issuing stock). Meanwhile, Vroom, which has been disappointing, finally announced strong quarterly results.

There are persons from the world of finance who are well-known enough to perhaps be household names. Peter Lynch, who had remarkable success as a mutual fund manager, wrote books. Anyone who read those titles and turned in a similar performance because of it is unknown. Pursuant to thumbing through one of them at what was probably a Barnes & Noble store, or maybe an online summary in some sort of article, if remembered correctly, he wrote that when a corporation turns around, or shows signs of improvement after extensive disappointment, its stock rises fast.

It appears that Vroom just turned around. Year on year revenue growth is about 81% higher and the stock sells at closer to 2x revenues despite having gained through recent weeks. It could be worth 4-5x revenues–with the possibility of a disappointing future quarter.

There is a fund manager, and CNBC personality, by the name of Karen Firestone who might be described as a Lynch protégé. Refreshingly, she seems to offer quality stock picks when presenting them through media (an impressive 3/3 in referenced Barron’s article), though her own fund’s performance may never have set her apart. Some money managers really do the opposite when speaking publicly as compared to running their own funds. Apart from evidently liking O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY), she is usually in support of something unfamiliar.

Image credit: Harrison Broadbent on Unsplash
Firestone evidently does not have a “Village semiconductor analyst” among her staff, as ascertainable through publicly-available biographical information. What, might you ask, is your village semiconductor analyst? It is a term you are probably hearing here first, at least it is not known to be in use anywhere else, and therefore could be subtly valuable.

However, despite having results picking stocks of companies involved in integrated circuits, the emphasis here is usually not on processing power. Mixed signal chips can be followed closely though. They are used in handsets, such as iPhones or Galaxy devices, are increasingly relevant in the automotive sector, and are important in industrial settings among other uses.

Maybe they are quintessentially contemporary widgets?

I’m not sure who is currently bankable for semiconductor stock picks. The Wall Street Journal used to have a columnist named Renee Schultes who got one right in 2013, perhaps among the top things the Journal, or Financial Times, ever did. That instance of accuracy evidently did little to further her career there.

That said, if you are investing in, or trading, the shares of a parts supplier, they maybe should not command substantially higher-than-market multiples of their cash flows, earnings, or other metrics. Corporations that produce mixed signal chips are parts suppliers.

Index funds that track them include SOXX and SMH.

There are ongoing problems about a shortage of microchips with attention to its effect on automotive industries. Domestic production, or lack thereof, is topical. There are also geopolitical issues involving the island of Taiwan, that China considers a breakaway province and houses some important chip manufacturing technology. (Evidently cutting-edge semiconductor research is carried on there also, if you buy into the story about viability of a 1 nm process attributed to Massachusetts Institute of Technology and National Taiwan University).

Semiconductor firms are multinational and can require effort to follow. Much of the integrated circuit marketplace flows through, or is produced in, China. Trade, intellectual property, or other issues could be relevant and further complicate.

My account owns shares of Qorvo (QRVO), which is probably identified first and foremost with 5G radio frequency chips that help devices connect to the internet. The firm does not have much of an automotive business. Apple is a customer and Qorvo also makes important chips for next-generation communication infrastructure. The market has not been exorbitantly valuing its stock. The company does own domestic fabrication plants. Semiconductor firms have been buying each other out regularly for years, Qorvo being the product of a 2015 merger. Thus, ownership of a vibrant business with potentially strategic facilities has appeal.

Similar to Vroom, my account has traded options. Just Thursday, an order to sell a November $200 / $230 / $260 call butterfly filled for $415, after being purchased last Thursday for $360, a 15% gain. The stock can and could continue higher from its current $182.72. The options trade was priced far above the share price because of the perceived possibility of a buyout. However, it may head lower again. The stock should still do well over the longer term.

There is a tragic, catastrophic pandemic. Carvana and Vroom are delivering refurbished vehicles through it. We may see if Qorvo is positioned for other issues as well. Why shouldn’t we hope so, even if taxes of their founders should go up?

***the author owns QRVO, CVNA, & VRM***

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