China and 5G Technology

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The situation in Hong Kong has continued to be a problem for persons with a Western perspective. China is asserting itself in ways that undermine protests against its authoritarian, autocratic, or dictatorial rule. Though leaders of the U.S. Republican Party have been most vocal about it, there is bipartisan legislation that should be enacted in response. The matter is also important to Britain, which is offering to take people in. The escalation is substantial and significant.

It is already a challenge to dedicate energies to (foreign) historical matters that are not being popularly scrutinized. Though Hong Kong’s current situation is in the news, the Asian port region may have gained its greatest attention pursuant to Chinese issues with the National Basketball Association when a general manager expressed support of democracy there. Of course the 19th century power struggle involving Hong Kong is better known in China; and perhaps the United Kingdom, which used to control it; than among domestic persons.

After all, the Opium Wars mostly have not involved us. They may not be a source of pride to belligerents. Thus, the struggle for liberties is not necessarily the same as a dignifying history.

There are several books on 19th century China and conflict that resulted in ceding Hong Kong–first with the Treaty of Nanking. If anyone has read Imperial Twilight, the Opium War and the End of China’s Last Golden Age, please leave a comment or send a message? Motivation is sought.

The 21st century world is speeding up its communications networks. China’s Huawei is known for its 5G technologies. It can be viewed as leading competitors such as Sweden’s Ericsson (ERIC) and Finland’s Nokia (NOK). However, concern about any eavesdropping or spying by Huawei is ever-present and the company is on an “Entity List,” with increasingly harsh terms applied, as to “Crimp global sales.”

Ericsson 5G Radios on Rooftop

Meanwhile, amid worries that include rights, freedoms, and democratic principles, a Hong Kong Autonomy Act has passed Congress, with unanimous approval in the Senate. Britain is offering a path to citizenship for 3 million residents of Hong Kong, its former colony. At least through the elections scheduled for November, it is difficult to see any way that Sino-American and Sino-British relations can improve.

Problems for Huawei can be intractable for the foreseeable future. They are multinational. The company might continue to enjoy positive relations in important geographies. However there are potential opportunities for competitors in Europe and South America.

Ericsson has important operations in China, which entails risks. It is expected to write down $109 million. Detail should be available this Friday, when the company announces its quarterly earnings. The stock was on the Conviction Buy list at Goldman Sachs and the US1 list at Bank of America.

There is suspicion that Nokia recently lost important business with Verizon (VZ), after cutting its dividend, so its situation is probably worse.

Thus, among Huawei, Ericsson and Nokia, it currently seems that the Swedish firm has a favorable horizon. It also has problems. Issues should be better known after Friday. 

** The author owns stock in ERIC

7/21/20 the stock is up, just over 20%: from $9.62 to $10.89 on Friday, then $10.89 to $11.59 today. However, China is considering retaliation if European countries ban Huawei equipment there. This news could put a damper on it, as Ericsson is positioned to profit in China. 

7/27/20 Several news outlets are reporting that, because of conflict between India and China in the Himalayas, there are calls to boycott Chinese goods in India and Huawei is lowering its revenue outlook. This may ultimately present opportunities to other firms.

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