Barnes & Noble: A 21st Century Chain of Book Stores?

Chances are that you do not need me to inform you that Barnes & Noble (BKS), a chain of traditional brick and mortar book stores, has been in protracted decline. Remarkably, the seasonal business, which reports a loss in 3 out of 4 quarters a year, has continued paying a dividend to shareholders despite losing so much money. A big investor, who has made some questionable bets, such as demanding that Qualcomm increase its acquisition offer for NXP Semiconductors only to have the Chinese government squash the deal, recently bought out this retail enterprise.

The offer price is $6.50 per share. The stock is currently priced at $6.49, so there is effectively little in exchange for one’s risk if he or she invests in BKS now. The only appreciable return, unless there is a higher offer for the company, would be the dividend, $0.15 per share, which has been in place since the share price was much higher and there was better hope for the business’s future.

There are multiple headlines about the acquirer’s plans. The intent is to remake the book stores as successfully accomplished in the United Kingdom. This is in-depth, if prolix.

However, here in the USA, there is now a Common Core curriculum that is de-emphasizing fiction in K-12 (Kindergarten through high school) classrooms in 48 states. That is right. So, if like me, you have gotten through all 1,100 or so pages of The Count of Monte Cristo, there are going to be fewer and fewer of us in the future.

Relevantly, the current front runner for the Democratic Party, Joe Biden, recently included the words “We choose science over fiction” in the concluding remarks of a presidential debate. His wife is an English teacher so he is surely aware of Common Core. He has made gaffes since; but that is not obviously important to BKS currently.

Thus, the plan to reinvent book stores may have difficulty in the distant future. Consequently, though a higher bid from a competitor cannot be ruled out, taking on the risk of owning Barnes & Noble seems prohibitive. The description of the existing plan (linked three paragraphs above) does not sound like there is any thought-out way to feature poetry and nonfiction.

Anyhow, some people know that arbitrage can describe varied trading activities–in this case, there could be a future opportunity for what can be described as “Risk arbitrage.” Typically, some sophisticated investors find ways to hedge, such as investing in the company that is being acquired and betting against the acquirer.

The new owner here is a private entity, the only evident opportunity with BKS is to look for the share price to trade low enough so that there is a worthwhile return if one invests until the buyout is fully completed. The risk would probably be that regulators block the deal (However, with the lack of competition as physical storefronts struggle, it seems that typical reasoning for objection is perhaps narrowed).

It is surprising that the business’s future is seen as an opportunity at all though.


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