Electric vehicles can have battery power exclusively (BEV) or fuel cells (FCEV). Hyundai is billed as having the “World’s first mass-produced fuel cell heavy-duty truck,” the XCIENT. It utilizes hydrogen and is being shipped to Switzerland. We have a young enterprise that intends to be a competitor, Nikola Motor Company.
Citing smog and carcinogenic diesel soot, California is pushing for zero-emission heavy trucks, 8,500 pounds and up, by 2024. Nikola has an arrangement with Anheuser-Busch to connect a city pair of Los Angeles, CA and Phoenix, AZ with hydrogen fuel stations. It could be a meaningful head start on any competition.
Aside from rigs, there are also pickup trucks that may not run on gasoline or diesel. Nikola plans to launch its Badger, which blends FCEV and BEV technologies; and also powersports products.
The luxury electric automaker, with a home solar business, Tesla has gained cursory treatment at this blog already. Tesla’s cybertruck appears unique, if polarizing, and the firm has aspirations toward producing electric rigs also.
Some readers may be aware that the top selling vehicle there is, year after year, is the Ford F-150. All domestic producers of pickup trucks continue to enjoy tariff protection, pursuant to an agreement reached during the Johnson Administration (1964 Chicken Tax). There is a market opportunity that may be particularly profitable for new and competitive entrants.
Perhaps the most advanced producer of BEV vehicles is Rivian, which has an agreement in place with a marquee customer in Amazon.com. Rivian must have relative stability compared to Nikola, which should run out of money eventually. However, Nikola’s platform–which lags Rivians in key ways–is potentially better positioned with hydrogen FCEV technology.
There is also a company being created that maybe will be known as Lordstown Motors. It evidently has 27,000 orders for its Endurance truck, a BEV with a 250 mile range. The publicized base price of $52,000 might differ from an MSRP.
However, interest in Nikola is compounded by Joe Biden’s Plan for Climate Change and Environmental Justice. There could be a federal investment of $1.7 trillion over the next ten years. Among ambitious objectives, an Advanced Research Projects Agency (ARPA) would use “Renewables to produce hydrogen at the same cost as that from shale gas.”
Windmills and solar panels need the conditions to be right to create energy. Electricity produced during storms or sunny days should be saved. If not stored in a battery, it can be used to process hydrogen, which is ultimately compressed. Hydrogen production is cheaper when electricity costs are lower. A kilogram is about equal to a gallon of gasoline. While its weight is relatively light, volume is a constraint. It should cost about $3.50 per kilogram currently, with 40,000 kilos enough to fuel 1,100 trucks. Diesel is retailing at $2.01 to $3.35 ($4.03 in Hawaii) depending on the location.
Nikola is pursuing a bundled lease model. Customer lease of its trucks is planned to include hydrogen fuel and also maintenance for a fixed price per mile. Fuel efficiency is assured, or else Nikola may need to supply compressed hydrogen at below cost.
Hopefully not pertinent to an ARPA initiative: there is an enterprise known as Clean Energy Fuels that got considerable hype several years ago as it catered to vehicles, such as garbage trucks, that run on national gas. It eventually became clear that all the methane leakage involved rendered positive intentions to be misplaced. Natural gas could be worse for the environment than gasoline.
Is the same potentially true of hydrogen? Hydrogen leakage is a potential problem. However, currently-available information is positive about applicability and cleanliness.
A Biden administration could support the production of hydrogen energy throughout the 2020s. Nikola, partially in competition with Hyundai, aims to install fueling stations that dispense compressed hydrogen. If those facilities are ever in place, then use of its FCEV vehicles would be increasingly feasible. Maybe Nikola is in the right place at the right time.
* the author may invest in NKLA.
9/1/20 Here is an interview with the CEO of a potential competitor, Hyliion. Hyliion uses compressed natural gas, or methane.