There is a COVID-19 scenario that does not currently seem popular, namely that a vaccine or effective treatment is never found. Governments and pharmaceutical firms are putting everything they can into defeat of the virus. However, as has been mentioned previously, sometimes an experimental medicine can make persons worse off than if they had never participated in research evaluating it. This may be the current situation with coronavirus trials of giants that include Johnson & Johnson as well as Eli Lilly, in addition to concern with AstraZeneca.
Derek Lowe, PhD has provided a fairly-comprehensive overview of the clinical landscape for potential COVID-19 treatments that are under evaluation. Despite it essentially being the means for how he makes a living, he can tend to be critical of biotechnology. Yet, obviously there is extensive and specialized knowledge that he has used to produce a lucid write-up. Far less than 1% of the population is capable of this, including some of the online columnists that he routinely cites and champions.
He is among those who are, at least somewhat, sanguine about Novavax (NVAX) and may help with understanding of its adjuvant technology. An August 4th report shows incidence of headaches, fatigue, myalgia or malaise among study participants, a September release specifies that headache, fatigue or myalgia were most commonly reported side effects. Clinical research appears to have been remarkably safe.
A separate company, Moderna, may have enjoyed the most publicity. Its methods involve mRNA and have not had customary preclinical studies. Let’s hope its research is free of serious adverse events also.
Anyhow, Novavax is among the corporations that the US government is behind. The firm has secured $2 billion for its global coronavirus vaccine program. Its vaccine candidate–and they are working on a product that potentially prevents the flu at the same time–might be stockpiled before we know if it has safety and efficacy data sufficient for approval.
For reasons that perhaps could be topical in a separate post, stocks of companies working on drugs tend to rally into the publication of important data. That eventual news release can sometimes be described as a binary event: the stock either goes dramatically up or drops like an iron anvil several feet above an electromagnet. The idea here is to cash out before then.
My account has but one share of NVAX, at a cost of $108.32. When and if it climbs past and beyond the share price of Disney (DIS), it may be sold. Disney’s theme parks are having all sorts of issues because of the pandemic and it would do much better if a remedy is found. Otherwise, putting hypothetical NVAX profit into Disney should be safer than continuing ownership through an expected publication of vaccine data.
The chance of any success from among the entities carrying on research is probably higher than the probability that Novavax itself gains approval. Disney deserves a bigger position. There is also a chance that the only thing that arrests COVID-19 is what has been labelled herd immunity, not any of the endeavors Dr. Lowe has laboriously described.
If so, things could be dismal for the foreseeable future.
**the author owns stock of NVAX and DIS.
10/29/20 my account now has two shares of nvax at an average of $95.61
12/9/20 with positive news reports pertaining to China’s trials and other products soon to be launched, my stock is now completely sold. It has not climbed past the share price of DIS, however.
1/28/21 my account has NVAX stock again and there is a positive Press Release. While the product is typically described as being easier to store, there are still unknowns pertaining to the duration of any immunity to Covid-19. As Novavax is trying to combine its product with a flu vaccine, there may be a substantial opportunity, as well as the incident need that is obvious.
1/29/21 with the stock up 63% I sold NVAX. It is well past Disney’s share price ($220 vs. $169), however the risk of a clinical trial readout needed to be eliminated first.